Nvidia: We Were Right About Data Center And AI (NASDAQ:NVDA)

In our previous assessment of Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA), we believed the company’s commitment to innovation in the data center, representing 75% of its revenues, was evident in notable launches like integrated CPUs/GPUs, networking expansions, and software solutions. The ongoing productAMDINTC

Nvidia Revenue Breakdown ($ mln) (CY2023)

Our Previous Forecast

Actual

Data Center

38,367

47,566

Growth %

156%

217.00%

Gaming

9,501

10,427

Growth %

4.80%

15.00%

Professional Visualization

1,277

1,559

Growth %

-17.30%

1.00%

Automotive

1,201

1,093

Growth %

33.00%

21.00%

OEM and Other

265

277

Growth %

-41.80%

-39.11%

Total

50,610

60,922

Growth %

87.60%

125.85%

Cloud Provider Partnership

Nvidia

Intel

AMD

AWS

Yes

Yes

Yes

Microsoft Azure

Yes

Yes

Yes

Google Cloud

Yes

Yes

Yes

Alibaba Cloud

Yes

Yes

Yes

IBM Cloud

Yes

Yes

Yes

Oracle Cloud

Yes

Yes

Yes

Automotive Segment Revenue Comparison

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

Average

Mobileye (Intel)

879

967

1,386

1,869

2,079

Growth %

10.0%

43.3%

34.8%

11.2%

24.9%

Nvidia

700

536

566

903

1,080

Growth %

-23.4%

5.6%

59.5%

19.6%

15.3%

Qualcomm

684

714

1,098

1,500

1,872

Growth %

4.4%

53.8%

36.6%

24.8%

29.9%

NXP

4,212

3,825

5,493

6,879

7,447

Growth %

-9.2%

43.6%

25.2%

8.3%

17.0%

Texas Instruments

3,020

2,892

3,852

5,007

5,956

Growth %

-4.2%

33.2%

30.0%

19.0%

19.5%

Total

9,495

8,934

12,396

16,158

18,434

Growth %

-5.9%

38.7%

30.4%

14.1%

19.3%

Country

Name of Parties Involved with Nvidia

Total Amount ($ mln)

USA

The US National Science Foundation

92

India

The Indian government and major tech companies (Infosys, Reliance, Tata)

N/A

Singapore

Singapore’s National Supercomputing Centre, Ministry of Education, Singtel

N/A

Thailand

Ministry of Education, a consortium of top universities, the National Science and Technology Development Agency (NSTDA).

N/A

Saudi Arabia and the UAE

Saudi Arabia: King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (Kaust)

Abu Dhabi: Technology Innovation Institute

160

Australia

CSIRO

N/A

Europe

EuroHPC JU, UK universities

1,513

Japan

Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI), Japan’s NTT, Sakura Internet, NEC, and Softbank

121

Total

2,135

Cloud Providers Capex ($ mln)

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024F

2025F

2026F

2027F

Cloud Market Capex (Adjusted) ($ bln)

85.0

117.4

156.1

169.4

170.2

217

273

339

415

Cloud Market Capex Growth %

0.1%

38.1%

32.9%

8.5%

0.49%

27%

26%

24%

23%

Cloud Infrastructure Services Revenue

96

130

178

227

271

342

426

524

637

Cloud Infrastructure Services Revenue Growth %

39%

35%

37%

28%

19%

26%

25%

23%

22%

Cloud Market Capex/ Market Revenues Growth Factor

0.00

1.09

0.88

0.31

0.03

1.05

1.05

1.05

1.05

Sovereign AI Capex

22.77

22.77

22.77

22.77

Total Market Capex

240

296

361

438

Sovereign AI % of Total Capex

9.5%

7.7%

6.3%

5.2%

Company Share of Data Center Capex Estimate ($ bln)

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

Nvidia Data Center Revenues

2.93

2.98

6.70

10.61

15.01

47.57

Nvidia Share of Data Capex Spend

3.5%

3.5%

5.7%

6.8%

8.9%

27.9%

AMD Data Center Revenues

1.08

1.23

1.69

3.69

6.04

6.50

AMD Share of Data Capex Spend

1.3%

1.5%

1.4%

2.4%

3.6%

3.8%

Intel Data Center Revenues

22.99

23.48

23.41

22.69

19.20

15.52

Intel Share of Data Capex Spend

27.1%

27.6%

19.9%

14.5%

11.3%

9.1%

Broadcom Data Center Revenues (AVGO)

7.19

6.60

6.56

7.75

9.81

11.9

Broadcom Share of Data Capex Spend

8.5%

7.8%

5.6%

5.0%

5.8%

7.0%

Marvell Data Center Revenues (MRVL)

0.81

0.85

1.04

1.78

2.41

2.20

Marvell Share of Data Capex Spend

1.0%

1.0%

0.9%

1.1%

1.4%

1.3%

Others

49.9

49.9

78.0

109.6

116.9

86.5

Others Share of Data Capex Spend

58.8%

58.7%

66.5%

70.2%

69.0%

50.8%

Nvidia Gaming GPU Forecast

2021

2022

2023

2024F

2025F

2026F

Total PC Discrete GPU Market Shipments (‘mln’) (‘a’)

138.0

71.3

47.9

53.4

60.1

61.3

Growth %

-48.33%

-32.77%

11.46%

12.43%

2.05%

Nvidia Market Share (‘b’)

81.3%

82.0%

84.3%

91.1%

93.3%

93.7%

Nvidia Shipments (‘c’)

112.1

58.5

42.73

48.68

56.05

57.45

Growth %

-48%

-26.9%

13.9%

15.1%

2.5%

Nvidia Average PC GPU Price ($) (‘d’)

111.14

155.07

244.04

301.4

357.1

395.4

Growth %

40%

57%

23%

18%

11%

Nvidia Revenue ($ mln) (‘e’)

12,462

9,067

10,427

14,673

20,016

22,712

Growth %

-27.2%

15.0%

40.7%

36.4%

13.5%

Gaming vs Prof Visualization Revenue ($ mln)

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

Average

Gaming

2,058

2,818

4,060

5,513

6,250

5,518

7,759

12,462

9,067

10,427

Growth % (YoY)

36.20%

36.93%

44.07%

35.79%

13.37%

-11.71%

40.61%

60.61%

-27.24%

15.00%

24.4%

Professional Visualization

795

750

835

934

1,130

1,212

1,053

2,111

1,544

1,559

Growth % (YoY)

0.76%

-5.66%

11.33%

11.86%

20.99%

7.26%

-13.12%

100.47%

-26.86%

1.00%

10.8%

Company Ranking

Product Breadth

Performance

Average Ranking

Competitive Factor Score

Mobileye (Intel)

5

3

4

0.8

Nvidia

3

2

2.5

1.1

Qualcomm

1

1

1

1.5

NXP

1

5

3

1.0

Texas Instruments

3

4

3.5

0.9

Revenue Projections ($ mln)

2023

2024F

2025F

2026F

Gaming

10,427

14,673

20,016

22,712

Growth %

4.8%

40.7%

36.4%

13.5%

Professional Visualization

1,559

1,728

1,915

2,121

Growth %

-17.3%

10.8%

10.8%

10.8%

Data Center

47,566

77,725

125,051

198,247

Growth %

156%

63.4%

60.9%

58.5%

Automotive

1,093

1,317

1,588

1,915

Growth %

33.0%

20.6%

20.6%

20.6%

OEM and Other

277

277

277

277

Growth %

-41.8%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Total

60,922

95,720

148,848

225,273

Growth %

125.9%

57.1%

55.5%

51.3%

Nvidia Revenue Forecasts

2024

2025

2026

Analyst Consensus

110.44

130.91

129.98

Analyst Consensus Growth %

81.28%

18.53%

14.57%

Khaveen Investments Forecast

95.7

148.8

225.3

Khaveen Investments Forecast Growth %

57.12%

55.50%

51.34%

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