Luna Innovations Is Overpriced: Better To Sell (NASDAQ:LUNA)

This stock was trading for less than a dollar in 2016 and surpassed 12 USD per share in 2021, this story impressed me and I decided to analyze the leader in advanced optical technology Luna Innovations Incorporated (

Sector Median

LUNA

Total Return (1 year)

-38.58%

27.43%

P/E Non-GAAP (FWD)

21.28

20.39

EV/Sales (FWD)

2.56

1.84

EV/EBITDA (FWD)

13.66

15.54

P/Sales (FWD)

2.55

1.56

EBITDA Margin (TTM)

9.15

6.23

H1 2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

Cost of sales

41.27%

39.27%

41.09%

48.97%

50.11%

Gross margin

58.73%

60.73%

58.91%

51.03%

49.89%

Operating expenses

General and administrative

49.32%

52.55%

50.23%

33.43%

33.10%

Research and development

10.22%

9.90%

11.64%

8.12%

10.63%

Year 2023 2024 2025 2026
Tax rate 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21
Sales 125000 143750 163875 186817.5
Cost of sales 51585 60375 67189 76595
Return on net operating assets -1% 0 2% 4%
Residual operating income (ReOI) -10899 -10526 -9202.6833 -6690.325
Abnormal operating income growth rate 374 1323 2512
Discount rate 1.08 1.17 1.27
Discounted ReOI 345 1127 1976
Total Present Value (PV) of ReOI 3448
Continuing Value (CV) 60343
(PV) of (CV) 47466
Net operating assets 2022 115811
Value of operations 166725
Net Financial Assets (NFA) -22409
Value of equity 144316
Number of shares 33421
Value per share 4.32

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