Ignore UAW, Stellantis Is Still A Solid Bet (NYSE:STLA)

Thesis

In the ever-evolving landscape of the automotive industry, Stellantis N.V. (NYSE:STLA), forged through the merger of Fiat-Chrysler and Groupe PSA, emerges as a compelling entity. This conglomerate boasts an enviable portfolio of renowned automotive brands

Revenue Operating Income Net Income
2017 74,692.00 4,748.70 2,308
2018 84,805.00 6,225.20 3,239
2019 66,172.70 5,623.10 3,590.6
2020 58,216.50 4,138.80 2,655
2021 170,064.90 18,185.80 16,162
2022 192,303.20 22,534.50 17,988
2023 207,290 25,833

21,564

Revenue Net Income Plus Taxes Plus D&A Plus Interest
2023 $202,640.00 $11,753.12 $13,493.97 $18,843.59 $20,122.86
2024 $205,550.00 $11,921.90 $13,687.75 $19,114.19 $20,411.84
2025 $210,577.75 $12,213.51 $14,022.55 $19,581.72 $20,911.11
2026 $215,749.76 $12,513.49 $14,366.96 $20,062.67 $21,424.71
2027 $221,070.77 $12,822.10 $14,721.29 $20,557.47 $21,953.10
2028 $226,545.73 $13,139.65 $15,085.87 $21,066.59 $22,496.79
^Final EBITA^

Passenger Commercial Total
2025 146,446.2 64,131.6 210,577.8
2026 149,052.9 66,696.9 215,749.8
2027 151,706.0 69,364.7 221,070.8
2028 154,406.4 72,139.3 226,545.7

D&A Projection Interest Projection
2023 5,349.621 1,279.27
2024 5,426.444 1,297.65
2025 5,559.175 1,329.39
2026 5,695.714 1,362.04
2027 5,836.187 1,395.63
2028 5,980.724 1,430.19

TABLE OF ASSUMPTIONS
(Current data)
Assumptions Part 1
Equity Value 84,094.30
Debt Value 32,171.50
Cost of Debt 4.06%
Tax Rate 14.81%
10y Treasury 4.40%
Beta 1.26
Market Return 10.50%
Cost of Equity 12.09%
Assumptions Part 2
EBIT 26,619.30
Tax (1,977.96)
D&A 5,457.20
CapEx 9,929.10
Capex Margin 4.80%
Assumption Part 3
Net Income 21,564.80
Interest 1,305.00
Tax 3,749.50
D&A 5,457.20
Ebitda 32,076.50
D&A Margin 2.64%
Interest Expense Margin 0.63%
Revenue 206,715.0

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