September has been the weakest month of any year. The coming week is OPEX (options expiration week). This week has been up slightly since 1985. Most of the strength is early in the week; the gains tend to evaporate late in the week. However, the next week is post-OPEX week (18th through the 22nd) which is close enough to the most bearish week in any year, September 19-26, up only 34% of the time. The bears will likely be happiest in the last half of this month.
It appears too risky to buy stocks in this week. The viable strategies are to sell short in anticipation of the weak second half, or to look out to October for buy candidates.
Adobe
ADBE
Adobe-Daily, Weekly, Monthly
Adobe Monthly Histogram
Red: Probability of a Rise
Blue: Average Price Change
Green: Expected Return
Ford is in the former bearish category. It is one of the weakest stocks in September, up only 25.6% of the time in this month. As with the S&P, Ford is bearish in the second half, down 70% of the time. Relative strength is already falling, having just hit a new low. This is one of the lower-rated stocks in the S&P 500. Ford could lose another 10% by month’s end.
Ford-Daily, Weekly, Monthly
Ford-Daily Histogram
Red: Probability of a Rise
Blue: Average Price Change
Green: Expected Return
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