Fed doves, Fed hawks: US central bankers in their words

(Reuters) – The labels “dove” and “hawk” have long been used by central bank watchers to describe the monetary policy leanings of policymakers, with a dove more focused on risks to the labor market and a hawk more focused on the threat of inflation.

The topsy-turvy economic environment of the coronavirus pandemic sidelined those differences, turning U.S. Federal Reserve officials at first universally dovish as they sought to provide massive accommodation to a cratering economy, and then, when inflation surged, into hawks who uniformly backed aggressive rate hikes. Now, divisions are more evident, with more varied choices: to raise rates again, skip for now but stay poised for more later, or take an extended pause.

All 12 regional Fed presidents discuss and debate monetary policy at Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings, held eight times a year, but only five cast votes at any given meeting, including the New York Fed president and four others who vote for one year at a time on a rotating schedule.

The following chart offers a stab at how officials stack up on their outlook for Fed policy and how to balance their goals of stable prices and full employment. The designations are based on comments and published remarks; for more on the thinking that shaped these hawk-dove designations, click on the photos in the graphic.

Dove Dovish Centrist Hawkish Hawk

John Jerome Christopher

Williams, Powell, Fed Waller,

New York Chair, Governor,

Fed permanent permanent

President, voter: “We voter:

permanent want to see “There’s

voter: convincing nothing

“It’s evidence that is

still an really, that saying we

open we have need to do

question reached the anything

as we go appropriate imminent

forward, level.” Sept anytime

have we 20, 2023 soon, so we

got can just

sufficient sit there,

ly wait for

restrictiv the data,

e” to see if

bring things

inflation continue.”

sustainabl Sept. 5,

y down to 2023

2%. Sept.

7, 2023

Patrick Lisa Cook, Philip Michelle

Harker, Governor, Jefferson, Bowman,

Philadelphia permanent Governor and Governor,

Fed President, voter: Vice Chair permanent

2023 voter: “If Designate, voter:

“Right now, I confirmed, permanent “Inflation

think that I will voter: “The is still

we’ve probably stay economy faces too high,

done enough.” focused on multiple and I

Aug. 24, 2023 inflation challenges, expect it

until our including will likely

job is inflation, be

done.” banking-secto appropriate

June 21, r stress, and for the

2023 geopolitical (Fed) to

instability. raise rates

The Federal further and

Reserve must hold them

remain at a

attentive to restrictive

them all.” level for

June 21, 2023 some time

to return

inflation

to our 2%

goal in a

timely

way.” Sept

22, 2023

Raphael Michael Barr, Loretta

Bostic, Austan Vice Chair of Mester,

Atlanta Fed Goolsbee, Supervision, Cleveland

President, Chicago permanent Fed

2024 voter: “I Fed voter: “I’ll President,

feel policy is President, just say for 2024 voter:

appropriately 2023 myself, I “Probably

restrictive.” voter: think we’re we need to

Aug. 31, 2023 “The risk close.” July bring rates

of 10, 2023 up another

inflation notch….It

staying doesn’t

higher necessarily

than where have to be

we want it September,

is the but I think

bigger this year.”

risk.” Aug. 26,

Sept 25, 2023

2023

Mary Daly, San Neel

Francisco Fed Susan Kashkari,

President, Collins, Minneapolis

2024 voter: Boston Fed Fed

“Patience is a President, President,

prudent 2025 2023 voter:

strategy.” voter: “I “I would have

Sept 22, 2023. expect thought with

rates may 500 basis

have to points or 525

stay basis points

higher, of interest

and for rate

longer, increases we

than would have

previous slammed the

projection brakes on

s had consumer

suggested. spending, and

” Sept 22, it has not.”

2023 Sept 22, 2023

Lorie Logan,

Dallas Fed

President,

2023 voter:

“My base

case, though,

is that there

is work left

to do.” Sept.

7, 2023

Thomas

Barkin,

Richmond Fed

President,

2024 voter:

“The

reacceleratio

n scenario

has come onto

the table in

a way that it

really wasn’t

three or four

months ago.”

Aug. 22, 2023

Note: Fed policymakers have been driving up borrowing costs since March 2022 to bring down high inflation, and in July they increased the target policy rate range to 5.25%-5.5%.

Most policymakers as of September expected one more rate hike by year’s end. Neither Jeff Schmid, Kansas City Fed’s president since August and a voter in 2025, nor Adriana Kugler, a permanent voter who was confirmed to the Fed Board in September, have yet made any substantive policy remarks. The St. Louis Fed has begun a search to succeed president, James Bullard, who took a job in academia; the new chief will be a 2025 voter.

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