(Reuters) – Canada’s economy gained a net 39,900 jobs in August, largely in full-time work, and the jobless rate held at 5.5%, Statistics Canada data showed on Friday.
Employment in the goods producing sector fell by a net 2,500 jobs, largely in manufacturing. The services sector was up by a net 42,400 positions, mostly in professional, scientific and technical services.
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STORY:
Link:https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/230908/dq230908a-eng.htm
COMMENTARY
ROYCE MENDES, DIRECTOR & HEAD OF MACRO STRATEGY, DESJARDINS
“This report alone won’t make the Bank of Canada regret holding rates steady earlier this week. However, it does highlight that the economy hasn’t completely stalled. We continue to expect that the central bankers are done raising rates. But with progress towards rebalancing the economy slow, they won’t be signaling ‘mission accomplished’ anytime soon.”
DEREK HOLT, VICE PRESIDENT OF CAPITAL MARKETS ECONOMICS, SCOTIABANK
“We did get the rebound, but not through the ways in which I might have expected it. The self-employed played a big role in it, and that’s the softest of the soft data that you treat with skepticism. It’s all full-time. I guess that’s a plus.”
“It’s really tough to read the data throughout the summer months in Canada, because we’ve had so many unusual shocks from wildfires to strikes and everything else. And so we’re getting some ups and downs. And it’s tough to cut through to the evidence and see what’s really going on in terms of underlying behavior. A report like this just adds to the question marks… I’ll take the headline, but it’s still skeptical toward what’s going on underneath the hood.”
ANDREW GRANTHAM, SENIOR ECONOMIST, CIBC CAPITAL MARKETS
“With estimates of the output gap having been revised heavily over recent years as policymakers have struggled to calculate the impact of supply shocks, the unemployment rate has become an even more important gauge of slack in the economy.”
“At its current rate, unemployment is still modestly below levels which brought wage growth consistent with a 2% inflation target pre-pandemic. That was evident by the still strong wage inflation in today’s report, with an acceleration to 5.2% year-over-year from 5.0%, coming in contrast to consensus expectations for a slight deceleration.”
“As such, even though the Bank is still likely done with its interest rate hiking cycle, today’s data is consistent with the notion that rate cuts are not yet on the horizon.”
ANDREW KELVIN, CHIEF CANADA STRATEGIST, TD SECURITIES
“Certainly a bit hawkish, particularly the wages number. Showing that uptick on a year-over-year basis was not anticipated and I think that will not give the Bank of Canada a great degree of comfort.”
“In terms of the increase in jobs. This is above the breakeven pace for the labour market, so it’s a strong increase.”
“Always a little bit wary about putting too much weight on individual jobs numbers but this certainly comes down on the hawkish side of the scale and it will keep the Bank of Canada on pins and needles ahead of that October meeting.”
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