Apple
AAPL
Amidst the current financial backdrop, AAPL stock has shown strong gains of 35% from levels of $130 in early January 2021 to around $175 now, vs. an increase of about 10% for the S&P 500 over this roughly 3-year period. However, the increase in AAPL stock has been far from consistent. Returns for the stock were 35% in 2021, -26% in 2022, and 34% in 2023. In comparison, returns for the S&P 500 have been 27% in 2021, -19% in 2022, and 10% in 2023 – indicating that AAPL underperformed the S&P in 2022. In fact, consistently beating the S&P 500 – in good times and bad – has been difficult over recent years for individual stocks; for other heavyweights in the Information Technology sector including MSFT, NVDA, and AVGO, and even for the megacap stars GOOG, TSLA, and AMZN. In contrast, the Trefis High Quality Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has outperformed the S&P 500 each year over the same period. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics. Given the current uncertain macroeconomic environment with high oil prices and elevated interest rates, could AAPL face a similar situation as it did in 2022 and underperform the S&P over the next 12 months – or will it see a strong jump?
Overall, we expect sales of products such as the Mac and iPad to also decline year-over-year, as the remote working trend eases and the broader PC and tablet markets cool. For example, Gartner
IT
While Apple stock could move higher if it beats earnings, we believe that the stock is slightly overvalued at current levels of about $173 per share. Apple stock currently trades at over 30x 2023 earnings, which is high relative to historical levels. Moreover, Apple’s earnings are poised to contract this year per consensus estimates, with revenue growth projected to remain slow over the next year as well. We value Apple at about $168 per share, about 3% below the market price. See our analysis of Apple Valuation for more details on what’s driving our price estimate for Apple and how it compares with peers.
Invest with Trefis Market Beating Portfolios
See all Trefis Price Estimates
Read the full article here
Leave a Reply